The New Finlandization

By Mika Horelli, BRUSSELS

When Finland's President Alexander Stubb posed last Saturday alongside Donald Trump at his golf course in Florida, the stir caused by the image was entirely predictable. Some Finns tipped their hats to Stubb's ability to build relations with the narcissistic leader of a superpower. In contrast, others spoke of a new kind of "Finlandization," accusing Finland of again bowing down—this time, however, to the United States.

Critics saw Stubb's visit as pandering to Trump during a time when the U.S. president, together with his MAGA fanatics, has openly aimed at destroying the very foundations of Western democratic values—the same values the United States once spearheaded in promoting globally.

Trump's approach toward Europe, leaning openly toward authoritarianism, has never been gentle. His trade wars and his demand to forcibly acquire Greenland as if it were mere real estate are not merely isolated scandals. They represent policy stances that regularly force European leaders to grit their teeth.

Yet, Stubb's role as the President of Finland differs fundamentally from that of moral guardians. His task is to safeguard Finnish interests in every circumstance, not to create a perfect world. Realism has always been the most essential characteristic of Finnish foreign policy. Throughout history, Finns have grown accustomed to uncomfortable neighbours and difficult circumstances, in which a small nation's only real option has often been flexibility, sometimes even submission.

History is full of examples. Living next to Josif Stalin's Soviet Union was neither pleasant nor honourable, but necessary. Finland paid massive war reparations to the Soviet Union even though the USSR itself initiated the conflict, stealing a tenth of Finland's territory in the process. Post-war declarations of friendship and cooperation were made under Stalin's gunpoint at Finland's temple. Anyone capable of critical thought understood the charade but also understood that pretending along was the path of least resistance.

During my military service in Niinisalo, western Finland, in the early 1980s, the imaginary enemy in map exercises never approached from the east. Everyone knew that the only real threat was from precisely that direction, but flipping the map around was a lie we had to live with. The Finnish political system operated under Moscow's often visible thumb, yet Finland preserved its independence and democracy, at least sufficiently for us to look ourselves in the mirror and conclude that we fared better than the Baltic states or Eastern European countries forced directly under Moscow's command.

Presidents Juho Kusti Paasikivi, Urho Kekkonen, and Mauno Koivisto were masters at juggling dual strategies. Kekkonen went fishing and hunting with various Soviet leaders, not because he particularly enjoyed their company but because he understood Finland's survival depended on precisely this kind of diplomacy. Realpolitik meant submission, but it involved a great deal of wisdom in the larger scheme of things.

Fast-forwarding to the present day: Vladimir Putin's Russia demonstrated in 2022 that it is capable and willing to disrupt European security more violently than the Soviet Union had after 1968. In December 2021, with demands to halt NATO expansion, Putin effectively stripped Finland of the option to continue its security policy balancing act, pushing Finland toward rapid NATO membership. As Finland's then-president Sauli Niinistö aptly remarked on February 23, 2022, the masks had finally fallen.

Niinistö and the Finnish government were fully aware by spring 2022 that Trump's reelection was a real possibility, just as they were aware that NATO included members such as Hungary and Turkey, whose commitment to democracy was minimal at best. Yet, it was equally clear to Finland that, despite its imperfections, NATO was Finland's only viable option for a military alliance with genuine weight against Russia. Finns have always been pragmatists; allying with autocratic states was hardly new.

When Stubb plays golf with Trump, he uses the same diplomacy Kekkonen once practised on his hunting trips with Brezhnev. He is cultivating relationships that Finland might require in the future. Stubb's visit is thus less about personally supporting Trump and more about realism and preparation for a scenario where Finland must secure U.S. support against Russia's threat.

As leaders, Trump and Putin represent the worst possible international nightmare for both Finns and Europeans in general. Nevertheless, coexistence with them remains necessary, just as Finns have always needed to coexist with difficult neighbours and uncomfortable partners throughout history. Stubb's role as president is not to judge but to manage Finland's relationships in a world far from ideal.