Trump's Return and Europe's Moment of Truth: Reflections from Finland

By Mika Horelli, Brussels

The shadow of Donald Trump's return to power has Europe bracing for impact. Few Europeans harbour illusions about Trump's views on alliances and international cooperation. However, Finnish emeritus professor of international law Martti Koskenniemi offered stark clarity in a recent interview with Finland's national broadcaster, Yle. His views illuminate the uneasy realities Europe may soon face, underscoring vulnerabilities and strategic uncertainties that stretch far beyond Finland's borders.

Koskenniemi's assessment, articulated in a detailed conversation aired on March 29, 2025, on Yle's "Ykkösaamu," is blunt. According to him, Trump's ambitions include deliberately weakening the European Union and fundamentally altering the continent's geopolitical landscape into competing spheres of influence dominated by major global powers—primarily the United States and Russia. In Koskenniemi's view, "breaking up the European Union is a central goal of Trump's MAGA strategy."

The notion of spheres of influence is historically familiar and strategically troubling for Europeans. Koskenniemi suggests Trump envisions Europe not as a united partner but as a fragmented space from which to selectively extract allies. Individual European nations might find themselves "either drawn into America's orbit or pushed into Russia's," he argues. This bleak scenario challenges the heart of European solidarity and cooperation built painstakingly over decades.

Historically, Finland has been familiar with navigating the narrow spaces between superpowers, and it appears again as a key litmus test in this environment. Koskenniemi highlights Finland's role as an example of cautious diplomatic navigation. He praises Finnish President Alexander Stubb's measured rhetoric toward the United States, noting that Finland has wisely adopted a restrained approach rather than antagonistic criticism. Active diplomacy also thrives on the green: Stubb played golf with Trump in Florida on Saturday.

According to Koskenniemi, Stubb's moderation gives Finland valuable diplomatic manoeuvrability in a volatile international context.

"We have become accustomed to diplomatic hypocrisy," Koskenniemi remarks wryly, pointing to Finland's Cold War-era neutrality as a pragmatic blueprint that allowed the nation considerable autonomy between the Soviet Union and the West. This approach, he argues, holds value today. For smaller European nations like Finland, openly criticising a volatile and transactional partner such as a Trump-led America could severely limit diplomatic flexibility and economic opportunities.

However, Koskenniemi also emphasises that Finland—and Europe—face profound challenges concerning defence and security guarantees under Trump. NATO's famous Article 5, which promises collective defence, is increasingly questioned. Koskenniemi, known for his deep expertise in international agreements, openly declares that he does not trust NATO's commitment to automatically respond militarily. The U.S. Senate's historical debates about Article 5's conditional nature only deepen these doubts, particularly under Trump’s leadership that explicitly prioritises American interests above traditional alliances.

Instead, Koskenniemi points to Finland's bilateral Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) with the United States as potentially more consequential than the NATO treaty. The DCA strengthens direct military and intelligence collaboration between Finland and the U.S., providing practical mechanisms for defence and cooperation. Yet, even here, Koskenniemi remains cautious: while the agreement establishes deeper institutional ties, American action is not guaranteed. Trust in American assurances under Trump's second presidency appears fragile, at best.

Still, amidst the uncertainty, Koskenniemi identifies a notable, perhaps even surprising, development of hope: a rapidly emerging European-led coalition to support Ukraine following reduced American commitment. Nearly thirty countries, including non-EU states like Britain, Norway, and Turkey, have entered the void left by American ambiguity, demonstrating that Europe can coordinate effective collective action independent of Washington.

Koskenniemi calls this development "a rare ray of hope." The coalition coordinates aid and actively facilitates potential ceasefire monitoring, directly addressing practical security concerns. For Koskenniemi, the strength and resolve shown by this broad alliance demonstrate that Europe, if united, can manage its geopolitical fate—even in the shadow of great power politics.

Yet the implications of Trump's presidency remain sobering. Koskenniemi's reflections highlight uncomfortable questions Europe can no longer postpone. Will Europe maintain cohesion under American pressure designed explicitly to divide it? Can the European Union, internally tested by populist and nationalist currents, survive external attempts at destabilisation?

Koskenniemi's caution about trusting security agreements with Trump's America reflects broader European anxieties, especially among smaller states whose security depends heavily on alliances and treaties. The message is clear: European nations cannot simply assume that institutional commitments alone guarantee their sovereignty and safety. Strategic autonomy and more robust intra-European security cooperation may become necessities rather than aspirations.

Koskenniemi's analysis challenges Europeans to confront brutal truths. Trump's return forces Europe to reconsider deeply its security, diplomatic strategies, and even unity itself. Finland's cautious diplomacy, scepticism towards unconditional alliance guarantees, and proactive coalition-building efforts may serve as instructive examples as Europe navigates these turbulent times.

As Europe confronts this pivotal moment, Koskenniemi's insights timely remind the continent of its vulnerabilities and resilience. The coming years will test whether European nations, accustomed as they might be to diplomatic pragmatism or "hypocrisy," can convert that pragmatic caution into genuine strategic strength.

(Professor Martti Koskenniemi's interview aired on Yle's "Ykkösaamu," March 29, 2025: https://yle.fi/a/74-20152594)

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