History Lesson: How Trust Built Over Decades Is Destroyed in Weeks

By Mika Horelli, BRUSSELS


I suspect grey hairs have multiplied at an unprecedented rate among the leadership of the American defence giant Lockheed Martin’s Headquarters in Bethesda. This week's international news has reported how Portugal, Canada, and Germany are now seriously reconsidering their fighter jet orders from the United States. Portugal has frozen its order of 12 F-35 fighters, Canada is reassessing its massive order of 88 F-35 jets, and Germany is reportedly critically reviewing its order of 35 F-35 aircraft. The Trump administration has dismantled decades of carefully built trust with allies in just a few months.


Poland's recent demand for an urgent European alternative to billionaire Elon Musk's Starlink satellite system—now viewed as doing Donald Trump's dirty work—also reflects this crisis of trust. Europe has responded by developing its satellite network, IRIS², which is expected to be fully operational by 2030. This urgency highlights just how seriously the situation is perceived.


Musk has previously demonstrated a willingness to use his technology as a geopolitical pawn. In September 2022, he blocked Starlink's use along Crimea's coast, sabotaging Ukraine's planned strategic strike against the Russian navy.


This incident clearly illustrated how private-sector technology can swiftly become a political weapon. Although it was an isolated incident, it set a dangerously worrying precedent. 


Musk's current role as an informal confidant of the Trump administration resembles Grigori Rasputin's position in the Russian imperial court, where disproportionate influence granted to an unofficial advisor led to catastrophic outcomes.


The Trump administration's erratic policy toward Ukraine further emphasises the problem. Last week, Trump announced the suspension of all military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine following disagreements with President Zelensky. As I write this, it remains unclear whether aid has been resumed, whether the suspension has been suspended indefinitely, or whether the suspension itself has been suspended. If this sounds absurd, it's because it is.


It is impossible to trust the United States as currently governed, no matter how diplomatic masks may appear smiling on the surface. Behind those masks lie disbelief and horror.


The crisis of trust caused by Donald Trump is likely the worst ever. However, U.S. history parallels the Cold War, where inconsistent policies across different administrations caused severe strategic confusion among allies.


For example, contradictory policies by the Nixon and later Carter administrations in the Vietnam War's final stages and conflicting Middle Eastern policies by the Reagan and Carter administrations in the 1970s and 1980s led to confusion and mistrust among allies.


I previously wrote in this blog that the rapid increase in European defence spending would likely create unprecedented markets for the U.S. defence industry. I was partially wrong, especially concerning fighters and other high-tech systems. The unpredictable and unreliable U.S. policies rapidly undermine trust, an absolute prerequisite for such significant purchases.


It is no longer merely a matter of technical performance or technological superiority; it's about whether buyers can trust these systems to remain reliably operational without political manipulation.


Trump's increasingly aggressive rhetoric further erodes trust in the U.S. Threats of partially or even fully annexing Canada and demands to acquire Greenland from Denmark—even under threat of war—only reinforce perceptions of the United States as an unreliable partner. These statements are no longer merely rhetoric; they illustrate the administration's unpredictability and disregard for international agreements.


The situation is particularly problematic for my home country, Finland. If Finland were to decide on fighter jet purchases today, choosing the United States as a partner would be politically irresponsible. However, the situation cannot be reversed, as Finland has already signed binding agreements with the U.S. Thus, at least on Finland's part, these agreements will move forward. Nevertheless, realistically, unpleasant surprises from Washington could still await Finland.


Building trust takes decades, but destroying it can happen extremely quickly. The Trump administration either has forgotten this fact or actively chosen to ignore it.


In this blog, I will continue objectively and broadly analysing global events and their consequences. You can subscribe to my blog to stay updated and receive analyses directly in your inbox.

Location: Bryssel, Belgia

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