Europe’s fate is once again threatened by secret protocols agreed upon over its head

By Mika Horelli, BRUSSELS 

I grew up during the Cold War, a world where the balance of terror maintained peace in Europe. I do not claim that the situation was ideal—half the continent lived under brutal occupation—but both the United States and the Soviet Union knew where the geographical and symbolic boundaries lay.  

I could never have imagined that one day I would witness Europe once again standing on the brink of catastrophe, partly for the same reasons that once led it into the Second World War.  

In August 1939, two of history’s most notorious dictators, Joseph Stalin and Adolf Hitler, signed a non-aggression pact that shocked the world. Officially, the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact was a simple agreement ensuring that Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union would not attack each other. However, its true significance lay in a secret protocol attached to the treaty, in which the two autocrats divided Eastern Europe into spheres of influence. The consequences of this agreement were devastating and shaped the Second World War.  

According to the secret protocol, the Soviet Union would take control of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and parts of Romania, while Germany would gain influence over Lithuania and western Poland. When Germany invaded Poland on September 1, 1939, the Soviet Union followed on September 17, dividing the country between them. Soviet troops soon occupied the Baltic states, and Finland was attacked in the Winter War of 1939–1940. These events unfolded precisely as the secret agreement between the two dictatorships dictated. Finland did not share the fate of the Baltic states because it resisted fiercely enough.  

There is one fundamental problem with such agreements: they are only temporary. In a world governed by brute force and deception, treaties are tools to be discarded when convenient. This is precisely what happened when Hitler launched Operation Barbarossa in June 1941, breaking the pact and invading the Soviet Union. Stalin, who had ignored multiple warnings, was entirely caught off guard, and the Soviet Union suffered catastrophic losses in the early stages of the war.  

Looking at today’s geopolitical situation, it is impossible to ignore echoes of the past. Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Donald Trump’s United States negotiate Europe’s fate without European leaders having a say. Ostensibly, these discussions revolve around a peace deal for Ukraine. Still, beneath the surface, something far more sinister is at play: a cynical division of influence in Europe reminiscent of the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact.  

Russia’s history of deception and aggressive expansionism is well documented. What is new, however, is the role of the United States under Trump. Unlike previous American leaders who upheld alliances and democratic principles, Trump has repeatedly demonstrated his willingness to undermine both. A disdain marked his previous presidency for international agreements, admiration for authoritarian leaders, and a relentless pursuit of personal gain at the expense of democratic institutions. In his second term, he clarified that the United States may abandon its commitments to NATO and European security.  

Diplomacy is descending into tragicomedy. European leaders are desperately trying to pretend they do not see that their most important ally is now led by a convicted financial and sexual offender whose most well-known characteristic is lying.  

Europe finds itself in an unenviable position. Decades of complacency, short-sighted economic policies, and an overreliance on American protection have left the continent vulnerable to external manipulation. European leaders failed to take adequate precautions despite repeated warnings about energy dependence on Russia and the strategic risks of neglecting defence. Now, they face the grim reality of a world where neither Washington nor Moscow can be trusted as reliable partners.  

There is no room for illusions. With Trump back in the White House, his foreign policy is dictated by personal whims, transactional deals, and open hostility toward multilateral institutions. If Putin is given even the slightest opportunity, he will seize whatever he can, as he has repeatedly demonstrated in Georgia, Crimea, and now Ukraine. This is not a hypothetical threat—it is a fact.  

As a journalist, my role is to observe and report. But if I were to advise European leaders, my message would be clear: Europe must urgently strengthen its political, economic, and military position. It can no longer afford to rely on the goodwill of an increasingly unpredictable America, nor can it expect Russia to abide by any diplomatic agreements. The time for naivety is over. European security, sovereignty, and stability depend on decisive action—and time is running out.  

The events of 1939 serve as a stark warning. When dictators negotiate behind closed doors, the result is never peace—it is conquest, subjugation, and betrayal. Europe cannot afford to be a passive bystander in its fate. The only viable path forward is unity, resilience, and recognition that its security is ultimately its responsibility.  

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