Donald Trump’s New World Order

By Mika Horelli, BRUSSELS

Donald Trump’s second term as president has barely begun, and he has already made it clear that a rules-based world order is not in his interests. Instead, Trump appears willing to use any necessary means—no matter how aggressive—to shape the world according to his vision.

Within the first two weeks, he called for Canada to be annexed into the United States, attempted to pressure Denmark into handing over Greenland—even by military force—and demanded that control of the Panama Canal be returned to the U.S. These ideas may sound absurd. Still, they cannot simply be dismissed as offhand remarks with Trump. History has shown that his impulsive statements often have real consequences. His administration constantly tests the limits—pushing as far as possible without facing significant resistance, making his plans increasingly likely to become a reality.

It is well-documented that Trump lacks the attention span to read briefing papers prepared for him. As a result, he makes decisions based on unreliable sources. Filling his administration with political loyalists and laying off millions of expert civil servants will have far-reaching consequences.

Trump’s decision to revoke security protection from figures such as infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci and his family, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and his own former National Security Advisor John Bolton—despite ongoing threats against them—illustrates how he is now using power for personal vendettas.

The most immediate and tangible move in international trade has been his decision to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports starting February 4, 2025. This indicates that his protectionist “America First” approach is alive and well. Trump has also pledged to expand his tariff policies to include the European Union, effectively escalating a trade war. Such policies do not just harm other nations; they primarily hurt American consumers and U.S. businesses dependent on international trade, which ultimately bear the cost through higher prices. It remains unclear whether Trump does not grasp this fundamental economic reality or does not care.

Beyond tariffs, Trump has already spoken about new barriers to international trade, such as licensing requirements for certain goods and tighter restrictions on foreign investments. This has particularly alarmed European industries, which rely heavily on the U.S. market. Meanwhile, China has seized the opportunity to strengthen ties with the EU, positioning itself as an alternative to Trump’s aggressive trade policies.

Trump’s disregard for international norms is also evident in his proposal to forcibly relocate Gaza’s population to Egypt and Jordan. Palestinians see this as a repetition of the Nakba, or “catastrophe,” referring to the mass displacement of 750,000 Palestinians during the founding of Israel between 1947 and 1949. Nakba is an ongoing process that has profoundly shaped Palestinian identity and history over the past 75 years.

The idea of ethnic cleansing in a region that has been in conflict for decades blatantly ignores international law and humanitarian considerations. At the same time, Trump appears to view a depopulated Gaza as prime Mediterranean beachfront real estate for speculative investment. This aligns with his usual mindset: the world is one prominent real estate deal, where only the winners matter, while the losers and their fate are irrelevant.

Ukraine’s situation remains uncertain, but Trump’s past approach to Russia gives clues as to what might come. He may attempt to negotiate a “deal” in which Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of its territory, effectively losing its sovereignty—much like Belarus already has. This would fit Trump’s pattern of resolving complex geopolitical conflicts with simplistic, short-sighted commercial deals, no matter how destructive the consequences.

While Trump dismantles the rules-based world order, he is also systematically attacking U.S. democratic institutions. The Supreme Court, packed with his conservative appointees, appears to be in his pocket, weakening the separation of powers and the rule of law. This underscores how the U.S. Constitution has failed to keep the judiciary independent from politics.

Trump’s aggressive stance has also shaken America’s allies. NATO member states now genuinely fear that he may reduce U.S. commitments to collective defence. He has already suggested that the U.S. might abandon countries that, in his view, do not invest enough in their defence. Worse still, he has effectively invited Putin to do as he pleases with them. This stance seriously undermines European security and emboldens Russia to take even more aggressive actions.

It is difficult to say whether the U.S. can return to any traditional democratic order after Trump’s presidency. Based on the first two weeks, he is trying to make the system irreparable. His efforts to dismantle both the international order and American democracy are not just side effects of his decisions; they seem to be his actual policy goals. His actions indicate that he does not simply want to change the system—he wants to eradicate it.

Cold times lie ahead.

–––

Subscribe to the blog to receive the latest posts directly to your inbox.