The Baltic Sea’s relentless infrastructure sabotage must revive the Helsinki–Tallinn tunnel project

By Mika Horelli, BRUSSELS 

Although Russia’s involvement may never be definitively proven, the deliberate cable disruption caused by the Eagle S tanker—part of Russia’s shadow fleet—on Christmas Day is the latest example of hybrid warfare targeting Western nations. This was neither the first nor the last attack on critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.


Each of these incidents highlights how vulnerable seabed infrastructure, such as energy pipelines and communication cables, truly is. This vulnerability extends beyond the Baltic Sea to include the North Sea’s gas pipelines and transatlantic communication cables off Ireland’s coast, all of which remain susceptible to interference by authoritarian regimes.


While it is impossible to protect all cables and pipelines, the connections between Finland and Estonia could be safeguarded by placing them in a bedrock tunnel, coinciding with the construction of the long-planned but politically stalled railway tunnel between the two countries.


The Helsinki–Tallinn tunnel would be more than a logistical investment—it would be a geopolitical strategy. It would integrate Finland firmly into Europe’s rail network, reduce dependence on maritime freight, and provide safer export routes to Central Europe. During winter months, when the frozen Baltic Sea drives up logistics costs, the tunnel would offer a stable and cost-effective alternative. Furthermore, it would secure energy, communication, and power networks by placing them deep within bedrock, effectively creating a bomb shelter for critical infrastructure.


Finland’s stable and solid bedrock, the Fennoscandian Shield, is uniquely suited for tunnel construction. The world’s second-longest bedrock tunnel, the Päijänne Water Tunnel, already exists in Finland, demonstrating that the country has both the technical expertise and geological conditions necessary for large-scale tunnel projects. Meanwhile, Helsinki, consistently ranked as the world’s busiest passenger port due to Tallinn traffic, provides a robust customer base for both passenger and freight services.


Currently, about 90% of Finland’s freight transport relies on maritime routes, making the country effectively an island in logistical terms. This situation has been exacerbated by the near-total severance of connections with Russia. Winter icebreaking alone adds an estimated €50 million annually to Finland’s freight costs, undermining its competitiveness. The Helsinki–Tallinn tunnel would offer a year-round, cost-effective alternative, significantly reducing these expenses.


The tunnel’s estimated costs range from €10–20 billion (which, based on past projects, should realistically be doubled). However, substantial funding could come from the EU’s transport corridor strategy. The Fehmarn Belt tunnel between Denmark and Germany received €700 million in EU funding, while the Rail Baltica project—connecting Warsaw and Tallinn by 2030—has secured up to 85% of its financing from the EU. The Helsinki–Tallinn tunnel would be a natural extension of Rail Baltica, integrating Finland into Europe’s core rail network.


It is clear that Russia might attempt to target the tunnel. However, by the same logic, it could sever the Suwalki Gap or destroy Denmark’s major bridges—actions that would constitute an open declaration of war against a far more powerful NATO. If we trust NATO to protect its member states, the tunnel is a realistic and justifiable project. Using Russian threats as an excuse to avoid action is both dangerous and short-sighted.


In Finland, the tunnel project has been treated much like the old NATO option: speeches were made, but concrete action was avoided for fear of political backlash. Russia’s war in Ukraine at 2022 transformed the NATO debate in Finland and Sweden at record speed—now it is time for a similar shift in the Helsinki–Tallinn tunnel discussion.


The Christmas sabotage underscored the vulnerability of our existing infrastructure. It is time to wake up and act—to move from words to deeds. The Helsinki–Tallinn tunnel is not just a logistics project; it is an investment in future and security at the North front of Europe.


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